Making Good Software

A blog by Alberto G (Alberto Gutierrez)

Written by Alberto Gutierrez

December 19th, 2009 at 2:47 pm

Top 3 considerations to deal with uncertainty in software development.

with 2 comments

Not dealing with uncertainty efficiently is one of the main causes for software development projects to fail. Traditional approaches assert that uncertainty can be defeated by designing and planning ahead, but that’s wrong. Even in a small development, uncertainty is so high that to discover all of it up front is impossible. That’s why classic approaches, as waterfall, fail in dealing with uncertainty, and that’s why, in my opinion, they also fail in dealing with change.

Change and uncertainty are at the core of any software development, as Heraclitus said: “Change is the only constant”, and software development is not exception. That’s why dealing with uncertainty is so important. Some of the most common consequences of not dealing properly with uncertainty are: false expectations and bad estimations.

False expectations. Uncertainty is going to cause change, and change needs to get fed back to all the stake holders, but is very easy to leave information and people outside the loop, if this happens then the expectations are going to be different across the parties involved in the project causing that some of them will have false expectations.

Bad estimations. As I’ve already said before in this blog, I strongly believe that big planning up front is a waste of time, and that’s mainly because uncertainty. The cone of uncertainty is a very well known diagram which graphically shows this.



These are my 3 advices in order to deal with uncertainty.

Small steps

It is better to take many small steps in the right direction than to make a great leap forward only to stumble backward.

baby steps


It is impossible to get rid of all the uncertainty, so the best way to deal with it is to take as less uncertainty as possible at a time, your estimation then is going to be more accurate and the expectations across all the stakeholders in the project are going to be aligned. Small steps will also provide with quick feed back, so you can correct the direction in your project as soon as is necessary, and it will help you to reduce the total remainder amount of uncertainty.

As a rule of thumb, I don’t like to have tasks longer than 2-3 days. These tasks should cover a whole end to end scenario in your application and should have a clear acceptance criteria, an example of task for a online book store could be: “Add the option of payment with credit card to the checkout page”.


Can’t See the Forest for the Trees

Small steps need to have some sort of higher purpose, if not it would be like trying to climb a mountain by never looking further than 5 meters, just always taking the steepest path, but that is usually not the best path to climb a mountain.

Iterations are short time boxed periods that wraps small steps, their purpose is to serve as control points to demo functionality to the product manager and ensure that the direction of the project is correct.


Good communication plays a primary role when dealing with uncertainty, it is key, that all the parties involved in software development are aware on how uncertainty develops.